Non-Farm Payroll Expected to Be Revised Down, LME Zinc Maintains Fluctuating Trend [SMM Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $2,876.5/mt, briefly rising to $2,882/mt at the start of the session. Subsequently, as bulls reduced positions, LME zinc fluctuated downward, reaching a low of $2,842/mt. It then gradually recovered some of its losses, moving above the daily average line, and fluctuated around this level towards the end of the session, closing at $2,867/mt, down $6/mt, or 0.21%. Trading volume decreased to 94,800 lots, while open interest fell by 989 lots to 200,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE zinc 2510 contract opened at 22,160 yuan/mt overnight. Initially, with increased long positions, it briefly rose to 22,190 yuan/mt. Then, as shorts added positions, it dropped to 22,110 yuan/mt. Following a period of tug-of-war between bulls and bears, SHFE zinc maintained a fluctuating trend around 22,125 yuan/mt, finally closing at 22,130 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt, or 0.02%. Trading volume decreased to 38,266 lots, while open interest increased by 450 lots to 109,000 lots.

Macro: US non-farm payrolls are expected to be revised down by 911,000; the US Supreme Court is hearing the Trump tariff case, with arguments scheduled for early November; Trump responds to Israel's airstrike on Qatar: "It won't happen again"; the French President appoints Le Corre as Prime Minister; the State Administration for Market Regulation has held talks with major food delivery platforms to resist malicious subsidies; Cambricon: application for additional issuance approved by the CSRC.

Spot:

Shanghai: Yesterday, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc in the Shanghai area was 2.37, and the selling sentiment was 2.81. Traders in the Shanghai market were actively selling, but with the futures maintaining a stable fluctuating trend, enterprises continued to purchase according to their needs. Overall, spot quotations remained basically stable yesterday, with general trading activity, mainly among traders.

Guangdong: In the Guangdong area, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc was 2.10, and the selling sentiment was 2.79. Zinc prices maintained a fluctuating trend, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. Spot transactions were generally moderate, and the price spread between futures contracts widened, leading to a slight decline in spot premiums and discounts.

Tianjin: In the Tianjin area, the purchasing sentiment for refined zinc was 2.10, and the selling sentiment was 2.60. Zinc prices continued to fluctuate, with overall weak downstream orders and low purchasing enthusiasm. Traders' selling activities were slightly stable, with trading mainly occurring among traders, and the overall market transactions were moderate.

Ningbo: Some traders completed their sales the day before, resulting in reduced market offerings yesterday. There were still some discrepancies in quotations, and as some downstream buyers had already purchased the previous day, the purchasing sentiment was not high. Other spot purchases remained based on necessity.

Social Inventory: On September 9, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,050 mt to 51,025 mt, a drop of 3.86%. According to SMM, as of Monday (September 8), the total zinc ingot inventory across seven locations was 152,100 mt, an increase of 5,800 mt from September 1 and 3,200 mt from September 4, indicating an increase in domestic inventory.

Zinc Price Forecast: The LME zinc contract recorded a bearish candlestick overnight, with support from the 10-day and 60-day daily average lines below. The US non-farm payrolls are expected to be revised down by 911,000, indicating relatively weak employment market performance. Meanwhile, overseas inventories continue to decline, and LME zinc maintains a fluctuating trend. The SHFE zinc contract recorded a small bearish candlestick overnight, with some support from the lower Bollinger Bands. Currently, trading activity in regional spot markets remains subdued, and the peak consumption season downstream still requires time to materialize. However, the continuous reduction in overseas inventories continues to provide some support for the bottom of SHFE zinc.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived from public information, market exchanges, and the SMM internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.